O.C. subprime foreclosures to lead national surge
A new study on subprime mortgages — deals made to folks with risky credit profiles — suggests that Orange County may experience the largest percentage increase in subprime defaults on major metro areas in the U.S.
The study by by the consumer advocates at the Center for Responsible Lending found that 3 percent of subprime deals made in O.C. in 1998 to 2001 will end in foreclosure, the fourth lowest among metro areas. That rate jumps to 22.8 percent for subprime loans made in 2006, the seventh highest rate nationally. This adds up to a 668 percent expected increase, the study says. Statewide, the center sees subprime foreclosures ran at 4.5 percent for the ‘88-’01 vintage subprime loans. For ‘06 deals, California is projected to see 21.4 percent eventually go to foreclosures. The state is home to 14 of the 15 markets to see the largest percentage increases in subprime foreclosure rates.
The Center for Responsible Lending, a long-time critic of subprime lending, says of the overall national outlook: “As this year ends, 2.2 million households in the subprime market either have lost their homes to foreclosure or hold subprime mortgages that will fail over the next several years. These foreclosures will cost homeowners as much as $164 billion, primarily in lost home equity. We project that one out of five (19 percent) subprime mortgages originated during the last two years will end in foreclosure. This rate is nearly double the projected rate of subprime loans made in 2002, and it exceeds the worst foreclosure experience in the modern mortgage market, which occurred during the ‘Oil Patch’ disaster of the 1980s.”
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